What Really Drives Market Sentiment?
I mentioned last week that bullish sentiment was getting a bit frothy. After a few weeks of record highs, expectations that stock prices will continue rising had surged. Not quite an extrapolation of...
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Too Many Expecting a Correction
Click to enlarge Terrific timely discussion chart from Mary Ann Bartels & Co. at MER showing the extent of bearish anticipation of a correction: Investors Intelligence (II) sentiment data shows...
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AAII Asset Allocation & Deviation Equity Mean
Click to enlarge Yesterday, I mentioned that 2 things that led to the chart above: 1) Too many people are looking for a correction for one to occur; 2) Bearish sentiment rises after selling has...
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Sell Side Consensus Indicator Still Extremely Bearish
Click to enlarge Source Merrill Lynch I’ve shown this chart several times over the past year, but its worth repeating: The Street remains very bearish by historical standards. Note this is not at...
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AAII: Cash Allocations at a 16-Month High
click for ginormous chart Source: AAII, Fusion Analytics Today, lets look at another interesting data point from AAII: Cash allocations reached a 16-month high in March. Individual investors pulled...
View ArticleSir John Templeton on Bull Markets
Quote of the Day: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” -Sir John Templeton
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The New Great Rotation: Commodities into Bonds
You probably heard the chatter over the past few quarters: “The Great Rotation” was about to unleash a new leg up in Equities. Bonds were going to be sold, equities purchased, and a new leg up was...
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Putting Investor Bearish Sentiment into Context
Individual Investors Are Not Buying It Click to enlarge Lots of people have been discussing how negative investor sentiment is, showing the chart above. It shows markets making new all time highs as...
View ArticleInterview: Ned Davis, NDR
“We are in the business of making mistakes. The only difference between the winners and the losers is that the winners make small mistakes, while the losers make big mistakes.” -Ned Davis If you...
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Flows say: Still No Confidence in Equities
Cyclicals vs. Defensives There are many different ways to measure investor confidence and market sentiment.BoA Merrill Lynch looks at their client flows relative to the market. Some of this is...
View ArticleExuberance? Euphoria? Hardly . . .
Yesterday, the DJIA closed at a new record high, at 15,056.20 while the S&P500 closed at 1,625.96. While I keep hearing some people claim there is an excess of giddiness, please excuse me for...
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Habits of the Bear, Bull Markets and Agency Issues
“If you’re bullish and wrong, you usually have plenty of company. But if you’re bearish and wrong, it’s almost unforgivable.” -Bob Kargenian, TABR Capital Management, Barron’s DECEMBER 15, 2012...
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Percentage of SPX Stocks Over 200 Day Moving Average
Renaissance Macro Research, May 14, 2013 Jeff deGraaf, technician extraordinaire (formerly of Lehman now at Renaissance Macro Research) makes an interesting observation about the heavily overbought...
View ArticleRandom Thoughts: Comebacks, Intraday Reversals and the like
Since it is a Friday before a 3 day holiday weekend, it is a good time to kick back and think about what the recent market action might (or might not) mean. • Most Day-to-day market action is noise,...
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Don’t Be This Trader
Via Trader Habits, here’s another graphic to add to our massive collection of Sentiment Cycles (here, here and here): Don’t Be This Trader
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What Do You Control?
During this past month, we have seen significant moves up and down. Volatility has risen; there have been some scary drops in Asia, and some follow through selling (more or less) in the US. We have...
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Question: What Is Driving Hindenburg Omen Internals?
Source: Stockcharts Definition: Hindenburg Omen is triggered when: (1) more than 2.2% of stocks on the NYSE are at 52-week highs AND more than 2.2% are at 52-week lows, (2) the 50-day moving...
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Wall Street (Still) Lukewarm on Equities
Click to enlarge Merrill Lynch continues to point out that the Street remains unenthusiastic about stocks: Sentiment ticks up to highest in 13mos, but still far from bullish The Sell Side Indicator...
View ArticleFive Bubbles?
The stock market has been choppy since mid-June, thanks in part to tapering talk and even more data that proves China is slowing down. MarketWatch’s Laura Mandaro discusses five bubbles investors need...
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